Everybody loves talking about how trade between BRICS countries is exploding. Headlines love flashing big numbers about a changing global order. But if you look past the political speeches at the recent summits, a very different economic reality emerges.
Trade between BRICS nations has surged, with the bloc's merchandise exports accounting for roughly one-fourth of the global total. Sounds impressive, right? It is. But digging into the actual trade data reveals a stark imbalance that most commentators completely ignore. Take India's position, for example. Total goods trade between India and the expanded BRICS grouping more than doubled from $203.1 billion in FY2021 to $417.5 billion in FY2026, according to data from the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
That sounds like a massive win for regional cooperation. Dig deeper, and you'll find that India's trade deficit with the bloc more than tripled, jumping from $74.5 billion to $226.1 billion over that same five-year window.
Where the Numbers Actually Go
You have to ask yourself why this gap keeps widening. The answer lies in what is actually being bought and sold. BRICS has become an essential source of industrial inputs, machinery, energy, and raw commodities for its members. It just isn't absorbing a comparable volume of finished manufactured goods in return.
Consider how heavily concentrated these transactions are. China, the UAE, and Russia account for nearly 84 percent of India's total imports from within the bloc. Imports from China alone doubled from $65.2 billion to $131.6 billion, while energy purchases pushed imports from Russia up more than tenfold to $55.4 billion.
Meanwhile, India's exports to BRICS grew at a much slower pace, rising 48.8 percent to $95.7 billion. This dynamic means nations like India rely heavily on the bloc for essential imports—with BRICS making up 41.5 percent of India's total merchandise import bill—while their own export footprint within the group remains relatively capped.
The Dependency Trap
Most members outside of China show a high degree of import dependency on their fellow bloc members. Iran sources over 65 percent of its imports from within BRICS, and Ethiopia runs close to 45 percent. China sits comfortably at the center of this web because its manufacturing engine and export markets are deeply diversified globally. Other members don't have that luxury.
When you buy massive amounts of energy and heavy machinery from three or four dominant suppliers without exporting an equal value of goods back, you build a structural deficit. This isn't necessarily a failure of diplomacy, but it is a glaring vulnerability. A sudden supply chain disruption in West Asia or a shift in currency values can instantly bloat import bills and drive up domestic inflation.
Fixing the Imbalance
Policy analysts arguing that BRICS will instantly dethrone the U.S. dollar tend to gloss over these internal trade frictions. De-dollarization talks sound great in press conferences, but central banks dealing with a $226 billion trade deficit care more about actual cash flows and currency stability.
If emerging economies want sustainable growth through these partnerships, they have to address non-tariff barriers and push for higher-value exports rather than just acting as captive markets for raw energy and cheap assembly. Policymakers need to focus on securing reciprocal market access instead of celebrating nominal trade volume growth that only benefits one side of the ledger.
Stop looking at total trade turnover as the ultimate scorecard. Look closely at who is buying what, where the deficits pile up, and who holds the economic leverage when the summit tents come down.
